Russia and Ukraine: International Conflict and Electoral Influence

Russia and Ukraine have a long history of war and political turmoil and are currently facing conflict. In 2013, the former pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, decided against signing a planned agreement with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which led to widespread demonstrations and protests. These demonstrations soon turned violent as the government suppressed them, killing many protestors; Yanukovych was soon voted out of office in February of 2014. The Russian government was losing its influence over Ukraine, and, in the same month, invaded, occupied, and later annexed Crimea. They also backed separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine, only heightening the conflict which has continued ever since.
Eight years later, Russia began a buildup of military forces near their shared border with Ukraine, but Russian President Vladimir Putin initially denied any invasion. On February 24, 2022, Russian military forces invaded Ukraine from the Crimean, Russian, and Belarusian borders.
The Russian army quickly occupied large amounts of Ukrainian territory; the Russian military quickly withdrew to focus on the East, where the fighting had mostly been taking place. Russia’s army, while much larger than Ukraine’s, failed to take over Ukraine in the timeframe they had originally planned. Putin had originally planned for a takeover or change in Ukraine’s government, not a full-fledged war. His motive was to bring Ukraine back to where he thought they belonged—together with Russia. Considering Ukraine and Russia’s historical connections, Putin did not anticipate the nation’s extensive backlash, surprising Russia and thus causing a drawn-out war. Additionally, the Ukrainians have received international financial and military aid, helping them in their war efforts. It is evident that Russia was not prepared for this kind of war, facing issues in their higher command, similar to that of the Soviet system, and low morale among Russian troops due to considerable losses, logistical problems, and desertion.
More recently, Ukraine has been regaining lost territory close to the Russian border, even launching several attacks against Russia. They have also been launching missile and drone attacks inside Russia. On September 10, 2024, Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack yet, targeting Moscow, Russia’s capital city.
Many war crimes have been committed by Russia and Ukraine throughout the war. The United Nations Human Rights Office reports the following crimes committed in Ukraine: indiscriminate bombings on civilians, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, executions, abuse, etc.
With the United States’ upcoming presidential elections in November, the war in Ukraine remains an important topic of discussion. The war has already affected the US substantially because of the aid—both through military and financial support—that the government has sent to Ukraine. As of September 6, 2024, the US has sent $55.7 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war. Taking into consideration financial and humanitarian aid, a total of $175 billion has been sent to Ukraine.
The two candidates for the presidential elections are former President Donald Trump and current Vice-President Kamala Harris; in the most recent presidential debate, both candidates outlined what they would do about this war while in office. Former President Trump has been critical of the Biden Administration’s approach to handling the war, stating, that the “war would have never happened” if he was president. In the debate, Trump stated: “What I’ll do is, I’ll speak to one [nation], I’ll speak to the other [nation, and] I’ll get them together.” He hasn’t explained how he would do this, but many think he would force Ukraine to negotiate a treaty by denying aid. Vice-President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, said last August at the Democratic National Convention that the US “will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.” In the debate, she said that she “believe[s] the reason that Donald Trump says that this war would be over within 24 hours is because he would just give it up, and that’s not who we are as Americans.” Harris implied that she would continue policies similar to the Biden administration’s, which would involve continued support and aid to Ukraine.
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has a plan to end the war that was outlined a few weeks ago; his plan would include growing advances into Russia with the goal of pulling away Russian troops from the main frontline in Eastern Ukraine. It would also include using more military aid from the West, increased sanctions on Russia, and closer ties to NATO. This, however, would be inherently challenging due to Putin’s steadfast view that Russia will only end the war if Ukraine agrees to its demands. Until then, according to Russian leadership, the war will continue.