Trump vs. Harris: The Historical Electoral Impact of Presidential Debates

What many people consider to be among the most important presidential elections in U.S. history boiled down to the recent presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Kamala Harris gained her nomination at the Democratic National Convention on August 22, 2024, following current President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. Trump, on the other hand, had been the front-runner of the Republican party for some time, following his presidency from 2016-2020. Leading up to the debate, hosted by ABC on September 10, 2024, the candidates’ polling numbers in several vital swing states — including Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — remained at a near tie. The results in these states could very well dictate the election as a whole.
In recent elections, the format of debates has evolved significantly in the way candidates interact with each other and speak on issues. Social Science teacher Ms. Serene Williams gave some of her insight on the debate and how it compares to elections of the past. When asked about her thoughts on the debate’s format, Williams stated: “[The debate] didn’t have an audience. [The candidates] didn’t often look at one another directly, which is totally different from other debates. I think it speaks to the [atmosphere of] political polarization that we live in; this is a very divided moment.”
Williams’ sentiments about political division are reflected in statistical data gathered by the Pew Research Center; at the time of the Biden-Trump debate, nearly 90% of both Trump and Biden supporters believed that if the other candidate won, it would cause lasting damage to the country. While these statistics may have slightly shifted due to Kamala Harris being the new Democratic nominee, they reflect how politically divided the U.S. has become. Such a divide is why many view the upcoming election as among the most significant in American history. A poll taken by the Associated Press cited the concerns of Americans from all political affiliations regarding the future of the country, considering the potential outcomes of the forthcoming election. According to the poll, 67% percent of Americans believe the election will have a significant impact on the future of democracy.
Given the polarization in this year’s election, Williams spoke to its contrast with presidential debates of the past. She referred to the Richard Nixon vs. John F. Kennedy debate of 1960. She stated: “There is a lot of mythology around previous debates.” This “mythology” she is referring to has the ability to shape public opinion, which is why debates are such a vital part of any strong candidate’s campaign. In the example Williams provided, it is a common “myth” that Nixon was sluggish and old during the debate, while Kennedy was assertive and engaging. These notions effectively shifted prospective voters’ perception of candidates, which was likely a factor that ultimately led to Kennedy’s election.
Current candidates utilized unique strategies to appeal to prospective voters, speak on their policies, and address the country. When asked what stood out to her about important moments for candidates during the debate, Williams said “That first moment where Harris walked across the stage and got into Trump’s space and shook his hand […] as someone who [watches] politics deeply and has for a long time, that was a power move.” Williams expanded on this by stating that, “Those little things in the debate matter a lot.”
In terms of the debate’s impact on the national electorate, polling numbers have remained relatively steady, with Kamala Harris leading by 3% in the most recent nationwide poll, according to 270 to Win. Similarly, in the primary swing states, no candidate is leading by more than 2%, with Trump leading in Georgia and Arizona, and Harris leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan. In terms of the debate’s long-term effect, Williams believes that “it remains to be seen,” but is hopeful that it has kicked off an election season involving two more debates between Trump and Harris, and one between their running mates, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz, respectively. We will continue to cover the election’s developments over the next few months.