Close Polls and Swing States: SHP Predictions on the 2024 Election Showdown

With the presidential elections coming up on November 5th, 2024, tensions are high between the Democratic and Republican parties. This election has truly been a journey, packed with surprising twists and turns — and understanding the current state of the election is crucial.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, entered the race and launched her campaign on July 21st, 2024 after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her. This was shortly after former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, was shot in the ear at one of his rallies in Pennsylvania on July 13th, 2024.
Just two days after the assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention (RNC) began. Trump was made the official GOP nominee and announced his Vice President running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance. Many prominent figures spoke at the RNC such as Amber Rose, Lee Greenwood, Tucker Carlson, Former Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, and Former House speaker Newt Gingrich.
On August 6th, Harris announced her running mate, governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz. The Democratic National Convention did not occur until August 19th, when Harris was officially made the Democratic nominee. Notable figures such as Hillary Clinton, Former President Bill Clinton, President Joe Biden, Steve Kerr, Oprah Winfrey, Pink, and Former President Barack Obama spoke at the DNC in support of Harris.
Trump and Harris had a presidential debate on September 10, 2024. They had heated discussions covering important topics of the election such as abortion, gun control, immigration, economic policies, and foreign policies. Polls showed that most believe Harris came out on top in this debate. Shortly after, Trump faced a second assassination attempt while golfing in Florida on September 15th. He was not injured in this attempt.
The vice presidential debate took place on October 1, where Walz and Vance continued discussing topics from the presidential debate. Both Trump and Harris have been campaigning throughout the US, trying to win over the swing states.
Harris worked as a deputy district attorney and also held roles at the San Francisco City Attorney’s Office and the California Department of Justice. She served as the District Attorney of San Francisco from 2004 to 2011, where she focused on reforming the criminal justice system. She was the Attorney General of California from 2011 to 2017; during this time, she advocated for consumer protection and criminal justice reform. She has served as Biden’s Vice President for the past four years. Her key policies include expanding access to healthcare, advocating for criminal justice reform, climate change initiatives, reproductive rights, gun control, and tackling income inequality.
Trump has had a career spanning business, politics, and television. He was elected president of the United States in 2016 and served four years until 2020. His administration focused on deregulation, tax cuts, immigration policies, and trade reform. He aims to impose steep tariffs on foreign goods, reduce corporate tax rates, and deport illegal immigrants. It is rumored he is a part of Project 2025, an extremely conservative 900-page document that would expand the power of the executive branch. While Trump claims not to be associated with the proposal, it is rumored he plans to implement it if he is elected. Additionally, Trump has been convicted of 34 felony counts related to election subversion, fraud, and obstruction. He will also face more possible convictions later this year.
As of October 11th, 2024, the polls are extremely close between the two candidates. Both Trump and Harris have reliable Democratic and Republican states that they can count on, which puts them both over 200 electoral votes, but there are 270 needed to win. This is where the swing states come into play. They will determine the election.
There are 7 swing states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arizona. In Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Harris leads by a 1-point percentage in the polls and has 49% of votes while Trump has 48%. In Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, Trump leads by a 1-point percentage and has 49% of the votes while Harris has 48%. In every swing state, there is only a 1-point percentage difference in the polls, showing that the swing states still remain relatively unpredictable. Harris leads with 49% in the national voting average while Trump has 46%, giving Harris a 3-point lead. If the polls prove right and Harris wins all the states she currently leads in, she will win the election.
Both students and staff around campus expressed various predictions for the election’s outcome. Social Science Teacher Mr. Ben Hunter stated “Kamala will win the popular vote” and believes “more new voters are going to vote for Kamala.” Hunter also predicted, “It won’t be decided until November 6th, it’s going to go to the courts… so we won’t know who the winner is until December.” This aligns with the polling seen so far, and Hunter makes an interesting point with his prediction that the election will not be determined until December.
Social Science Co-Department Head Mr. Dan Allari predicts “that it’s going to be a hard fight for Harris” and said that “this has become for many an election on self-identity” which brings in the interesting point that Harris is the first ever Black South Asian woman to run for president, and if elected would change history.
Director of the Lucas Library, Ms. Sheila Chatterjee, believes “Kamala Harris will win, because everything that I’m reading is showing that she is starting to do a little bit better in Pennsylvania, and I think that Pennsylvania is so key, and some of the other swing states I suspect will go her way.” Pennsylvania is an especially key swing state because it provides 19 electoral college votes, which is the most of all the swing states. The election may come down to who wins Pennsylvania.
Math Teacher Ms. Carole Langston also predicts “Kamala Harris is going to win because I think people want to move on.” She also thinks it will be “by a really small margin,” noting that it will be a very close outcome.
Social Science Teacher Ms. Serene Williams stated “I don’t trust polls, so I don’t know, I think it’s too close to call. I think what it’s going to come down to is the suburbs of Pennsylvania, especially white married women in the suburbs of Pennsylvania, and who they vote for.” Williams also refers to the importance of Pennsylvania in this election as well as women’s roles. With the possibility of having the first-ever woman in the office, many women look up to Harris and hope for representation.
For many seniors on campus, this will be their first time voting in an election. When asked what they thought the outcome of the election would be, they expressed similar thoughts to many of the teachers. Current Events Club Leader, Andrew Stamos ‘25 believes “it’s going to be a mess and it’s going to be very very close and there is gonna be a lot of messiness around recounting and challenging of different votes… I think that Harris is going to win electorally, but I don’t know if that is how the actual election will go, because I think there is a good shot that it will turn into some kind of Supreme Court decision over ballots in Georgia.” Stamos makes similar points to Hunter, predicting that this election will not be simple, and the outcome will not be decided immediately. He also brings reference to the last election where Trump accused Georgia of election fraud after losing the state and election in 2020. This led to the Georgia election fraud case where 19 people, including Trump, were convicted of trying to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia.
Arjun Singh ‘25 believes “it is too close to call just because all the swing states are so tight because no one has a significant lead, but we have seen Trump have a lead in Georgia and Arizona, whereas Harris is leading in Michigan and some polls Wisconsin, so I think it all comes down to Pennsylvania to decide the election.” The swing states are brought up again, emphasizing just how important they are in determining this election.
Josie Pleasants ‘25 says “I think Kamala is going to win because she appeals more to undecided voters and minorities.” Similar to the swing states, the votes of undecided voters play a big role in the election and could be part of the determining factor in who wins.
Most staff and students tended to agree that Harris would win, but many of them emphasized that it will be a very close race regardless, and some even said it’s too close to predict. The idea that Harris will win follows the trends seen in the polls, but the polls are extremely close — almost fifty-fifty. It is surprising that nobody predicted Trump directly, and raises the question of whether SHP staff and students express these views because California is a very Democratic area of America. Harris is from California, meaning she will get California in the electoral college, it also means democratic viewpoints and opinions are expressed and advertised more in California. This election truly will come down to the swing states, as many emphasized. Pennsylvania is the most important, as it has been split practically down the middle, with Harris pulling slightly in the lead. If the polls are correct, then Harris should win, but — as Williams recognized — the polls cannot always be trusted. There is typically a plus or minus 3-5% margin of error in the polls, which is around the same percentage Harris leads by. This election is truly up in the air and almost unpredictable. Whatever happens, it will surely be a close fight. There is no way to truly know what is going to happen until after the election on November 6. It will be interesting to see if the polls, SHP staff, and students are right, or if Trump will swoop in from behind and take the win.